College Football Picks Week 5: LSU vs Georgia, Alabama, Texas A & M, and More

MaChez Says...

Get ready for an amazing weekend of football.  Saturday we have #3 LSU @ #9 Georgia, #21 Ole Miss @ #1 Alabama, #14 OKLA @ #22 ND, and #23 WIS @ #4 OSU.  In the NFL we’ve got great games in every time slot, even with the Packers on bye:  SEA @ HOU and CHI @ DET in the morning, PHI @ DEN in the afternoon, NE @ ATL Sunday night, and MIA @ NO on Monday.  So much for winterizing my Florida apartment this weekend…

Below is what I’m recommending you bet on this weekend, and in case you haven’t been keeping track, I’ve gone a cool 9-1 since Week 1:

1. Chicago (+3) at Detroit Lions [-120 @ 5dimes]

Chicago is the better team overall.  Cutler and the rest of the offense are getting better each week under Trestman.  Detroit’s offense will miss WR Nate Burleson after he broke his arm trying to save a box of pizza.  Matt Stafford to Burleson was an 82.6% completion rating this season - #1 in the NFL.

2. Texas A&M (-15) at Arkansas [-110 @ 5dimes]

Floyd “Money” Mayweather is betting $300,000 on Texas A&M and he‘s undefeated.  Sure that’s the equivalent of someone handing you $100 and you betting 30 cents on A&M, but his reasoning is sound:  Johnny Manziel doesn’t have off days.  Plus, Arkansas, although, 3-1, lost against their first real opponent last week against Rutgers.

 

This could be you!

3. Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans - Under 42  [-110 @ 5dimes]

The #1 defense travels to face the #2 defense.  Houston has had offensive struggles and could be with Matt Schaub and without Andre Johnson.  Seattle is playing in the dangerous 10am PST spot where they’ve averaged 18.5 points since the start of 2012.

4. LSU at Georgia - Over 62 [-110 @ 5dimes]

LSU has averaged 43.3 points per game.  Georgia has averaged 40.3 points per game.  That’s 83.6 points on average between the two teams.

5. Ole Miss (+14.5) at Alabama [-110 @ 5dimes]

Alabama’s defense is questionable and its offense didn’t look great either last week against Colorado State.  They will have a tougher time against an Ole Miss team that only allows 114.3 yards/game on the ground, has more offensive yards per game, and averages only 0.3 points less per game.  Alabama should win this game, but if Ole Miss limits their mistakes, not by 15.

“MaChez Says” Season Record to Date:  9-6 (60%)

NFL Week 3: Browns vs Vikings Picks and Predictions: Lines and Tigers and Bears Oh My

MaChez Says: Picks and Predictable Bets for College Football and the NFL

Well the odds gods thought it would be funny to prove me wrong yet again, even if it was by getting all my picks correct.  After going 0-5 in Week 1 and explaining how unlikely that outcome and the outcome of 5-0 were, of course I went 5-0 last week to bring myself up to an even 500.  I'm not expecting to continue these one-sided affairs but won't complain if the 5-0's keep coming.

We have yet another great weekend of football ahead of us so push those to-do lists back another few days and let's get to betting.  Here they are, my 'MaChez Says' picks of the weekend:

1. Teaser (NFL sides 6 points) : Minnesota (-1.5) vs. Cleveland; Chicago (+3.5) vs. Pittsburgh     (-110 @ 5Dimes)

Both of these spreads are too low as it is, throwing six points to the two favorites isn't fair.

2. SMU @ Texas A&M - UNDER 78.5    (-110 @ 5Dimes)

Texas A&M is coming off a tough loss to #1 ranked Alabama where both teams essentially left their defense off the field and scored a total of 91 points.  That high score is driving the total this week up higher than it should be so take the Under.  A&M was embarrassed defensively and will make a statement this week at home against the spread offense they're used to seeing. 

3. Packers @ Bengals - OVER 49   (-110 @ 5Dimes)

This game has the makings of a shootout - on one side you have Aaron Rodgers, on the other you have a a loaded offense going against a disappointing Green Bay secondary.

4. Wisconsin (-23.5) vs. Purdue    (-110 @ 5Dimes)

After getting screwed last week by the refs in a 32-30 loss to ASU, expect Wisconsin to go big at home where they have yet to give up a point this season and are winning by an average of 45.6 points. I may or may not have gone to Wisconsin, too.

5. Tennessee (+16) @ Florida    (-110 @ 5Dimes)

Florida has only averaged 20 points per game and unless you see Tennessee getting only a field goal in a rivalry game, take the points.

Season Record to Date: 5 - 5

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