Packers vs Bears Pick ATS NFL Week 4

Last Week's Record: 4-1 ATS

Season to Date: 9-6 ATS

Top Confidence Picks: 3-0 ATS

I know it's early, but this already feels way better than 2013. Remember that time when Marco and I foolishly purchased a domain name, built an entire website, charged a nominal TSZ Insider's fee (which our generous readers were kind enough to indulge), and then proceeded to pick fewer games correctly than Psychic Granny C? Well, we do. And trust me, so does my mother-in-law. "I wouldn't mind doing picks again this year, Vinny," she said during a preseason breakfast, "but I don't want to embarrass you again on your website."



I don't get annoyed often, but when I do...it's at her. And for the record she - much like the rest of our team - ended up under .500 on the season, so the only embarrassing thing is that we were all worse than both my four year-old daughter (10-6 ATS based on mascot preferences) and - what do you call that thing - oh yeah, a coin.

Now to be fair - regular season record aside - Psychic Granny C is on a pretty good run of post-season predictions. Early in 2012, she declared it The Year of the Bird when Seahawks began their rise to power and the Ravens and Falcons ended up in their respective conferences championships. Granted there are a lot of bird mascots, but then she followed it up with a mid-season prediction that Carolina would win the Super Bowl the next year based on their shade of blue. I scoffed, and promised to take her to a fancy dinner if they even made it to New York, and then I proceeded to rib her with questions like, "Are you sure it wasn't Titan blue or Indianapolis blue? Or maybe a panther eating something blue?"



Sure enough, the once mediocre Panthers rolled to a division title, a first-round bye, and a first round exit last year. It was enough for me to buy her a un-fancy breakfast.



If anyone's interested in placing a wager, this Granny C has yet another prediction. It started out with a vision around Week 11 of last year when she said, "Vinny, I'm not sure what this means..." (all of her visions start out like that), "but I saw a team with a round logo on their helmet, and I think they're going to win it all next year." Rolling my eyes and sighing, I reluctantly Googled NFL team logos and the closest thing she could identify to her vision was the Pittsburgh Steelers. Booooo.



At the time, equally annoyed by the fact that she had consistently beaten us with her picks the first six weeks of the season and that Carolina Panthers were well on their way to the playoffs, I said, "No way I'm buying you dinner for the Steelers. They win the Super Bowl every five years. Call me when you have a real vision." I'm sure I apologized for my tone and delivery, but I stand by the statement.

Now let's get to some (slightly) more researched picks.

Coffee Thank You's: This post is generously sponsored by our buddy from the north Francis M. who is about to be gifted with a second child on October 26th. Congratulations to you and your family Francis, and feel free to write some posts during the early sleepless nights ahead. Also, please post photos for our readers in Texas. : ) Too soon?

If you'd like to sponsor our next post, please feel free to donate the caffeine necessary to write such nonsense. Just click the Coffee for Vinny and Marco button. Or come back and do it after you go 5-0 with our picks this week.

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NFL Week 4 Friday Five: As always, our Picks are Bold and HOME TEAMS are in CAPS.

5. BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3) over Carolina Panthers: This, my friends, is what we affectionately call an "Opposite World" pick. The Carolina Panthers are an impressive 8-1 ATS as road dogs since 2011 and the Ravens are a paltry 1-4 ATS at home in their last 5. The public is split pretty evenly on this one, but we like the experience and coaching of Baltimore along with a fired up Steve Smith playing his old team to give the Ravens a 21-17 win. If you like Totals, the last 12 Ravens home games have stayed under along with 14 of 20 Panthers games. Just sayin'...



4. Green Bay Packers (-2) over CHICAGO BEARS: I know, I know - why are we going back to the well that ruined our perfect week last Sunday. Because that's what gambling tells us not to do. If Aaron Rodgers tells me to relax, do you know what I do? I relax. Green Bay has just dominated Chicago in recent seasons, winning four in a row at Soldier Field and seven of eight overall, as well as covering six of the last seven meetings. Tough trends to go against. Yeah, we said that last week in Detroit, but this is different, isn't it?



3. Oakland Raiders (+4) over Miami Dolphins: Another delightful sell for the NFL in Europe. What is the marketing director thinking. Can't we send the Seahawks and the Broncos. Is this some kind of punishment for teams missing the playoff cut - like the football B league in England. I don't get it, but we'll roll the dice with the Raiders in this one, although the UNDER is looking appealing.



2. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+3.5) over New England Patriots: The first thing I ever learned about gambling was to never bet against a Prime Time dog. The last thing I learned was "Well, that depends..." This week, we'll take the points at home in Arrowhead because the Pats have allowed Brady to be pressured a league high 44 times (6 sacks, 10 hits, and 28 hurries) while the running game has yielded just 3.5 yards per carry. Kansas City, on the other hand, has the third best pass-rush in the game. Take the points.



1. Atlanta Falcons (-3) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS: We'd like this one better in a dome, but with rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater making his first career start against the 12th ranked pass defense, the Falcons are the play. Atlanta nickelback Robert McClain has kept opposing QBs to a 44 passer rating while the Vikings are allowing pressure in almost 30% of their offensive plays. Give up the field goal and go 5-0 this week. 



May the Spreads Be With You All,

Vinny and Marco

NFL Picks Week 3: Packers vs Lions ATS

As many of you know, for the past three years I've enjoyed a luxurious sabbatical from education as a stay-at-home parent. Early on there were times, sleep-deprived, decorated in spit-up and urine, that the honor felt a dubious one, but as the weeks and months passed, I quickly grew to appreciate the serenity of having only one child to worry about. Would it surprise anyone to know that I loved her so much I blogged about her?



That's right, before The Spread Zone took the Internet by light drizzle, there was a parenting blog that - although almost as much fun to write - never garnered quite the same attention because:

A) new parents don't have time to read.
B) once you become a parent, you no longer give a crap about other people's kids.
C) who cares about anything when the game's on.
D) all of the above.



Instead of the encouraging e-mails we get from readers today complimenting our style and asking for more picks, I got ones that read, "Hey Vinny, I'd really like to read your blog but your posts are so freakin' long. Maybe you could make them shorter and more to the point. Or add more pictures. Love, Dad."

Then there was the picture issue. When my wife found out I was posting photos on the Internet, I received a lecture about pedophiles in Texas, blah, blah, blah. I'm not sure why she chose Texas, but the more I tell this part of my story, the larger the imaginary population of pedophiles in Texas becomes. Ignoring my dad but accommodating my wife, I began to have even more fun with the blog, writing even longer posts about my beloved 2010 San Francisco Giants and their first World Series run.

I guess I'm just reminiscing a bit this morning because the stay-at-home dad party is over. Sorry Texas, you'll have to get your Jonothan Sanchez/baby hybrid photos elsewhere. As of a month ago, I'm back the crazy world of education with a whole bunch of other people's kids to worry about, and a whole bunch of other people's parents to be annoyed with. The emotional learning curve of returning to this world has been a steep one (stories coming soon), and although I was reticent to start up TSZ again, I'm grateful I did because it's like a mini-vacation every time I sit down at the keyboard.



Help Vinny and Marco Out By:

A) Placing your wagers with 1Vice. Click on the link to the right and give them your due diligence. If you sign up right now they're offering 150% free play bonus, a free $50 wager on tonight's NCAA UConn Huskies/South Florida game, and 40% gambler's insurance on your net losses during the month of September. How does that help us? We're not sure yet because nobody has done it, but we'll let you know.

B) Old school, straight-up coffee donations by clicking the Coffee for Vinny and Marco button. We don't expect fronts, but if you like what we're doing or you do well with our picks this Sunday, come on back and say thanks in the form of caffeine.

C) Comments, comments, comments. Let's help each other out. Post the picks you like below and tell us why you like them. Now let's get to the Friday Five

NFL Week 3 Friday Five

Last Week's Record: 2-3 ATS (boo)

Season to Date: 5-5 ATS (too early to cheer or boo)

Top Confidence Picks: 2-0 ATS (thank you Dolphins and Texans)

5. Green Bay Packers (+2.5) over DETROIT LIONS: Could be a bit of a trap line, but there's no good reason not to take the road dogs here. The only time the Packers didn't cover in their last 6 trips to the Motor City was when Aaron Rodgers was on the sideline last Thanksgiving. That's the type of ownage we'd back if they were favorites, so take the gift of points and sprinkle a little green (bay) on the money line, too.



4. Chicago Bears (+3) over NEW YORK JETS: The Chicago Bears shocked the Forty Niners in their new stadium/home opener last week while the Jets gave the Packers a run for their money at Lambeau. Although we have concerns about the Bears run defense and the fact that the Jets are tough match-up at home, we like Gino Smith to keep Chicago in the game with some untimely INTs. Take the road dog again.



3. San Diego Chargers (+2.5) over BUFFALO BILLS: I know, I know - why don't we take a home team already. Here's why. The Buffalo Bills are an astonishing 2-22 ATS in their last 24 games after playing Miami. Couple that with the fact that the San Diego Chargers have proven they can play in hostile road environments, and we'll take our chances with another dog.



2. Dallas Cowboys (-1) over ST LOUIS RAMS: If it weren't for the fact that I don't give a crap, I might actually feel sorry for the Rams. This was supposed to be the Sam Bradford and the Rams breakthrough year where they put the pieces together and make a run at the playoffs. Instead, it's Sam Bradford's surgeons who get to do that (again) sans aforementioned post-season play. It's too bad, really. I like Jeff Fisher (Rams coach), I like my brother Jacob (Rams fan), and I like most Aries (Rams astrologically), but what I don't like are low-scoring games (Rams offense) or Dodge (Ram) trucks. Although the Cowboys have been a paltry 8-18 SU in their last 26 following a straight-up win, we'll take this Dallas team to buck that trend and come out of STL with a win and a cover. Dallas is the play.



1. CINCINNATI (-6.5) over Tennessee Titans: Finally, our first home team in two weeks. The Cincinnati Bengals have quietly rattled off 10 of 11 ATS covers at home dating back to the beginning of last season. Even if A.J. Green doesn't play this weekend, there is value on the Bengals to cover the spread. We look to go 3-0 ATS with our number one picks. Take the Bengals to continue their home field dominance.



Time to head back to the mines (of education). Good luck as always and...

May the Spreads Be With You,

Vinny and Marco

PS A parting shot of my daughter AmarI dunking on the other most famous Amar'E:



PSS I might find the time to write a bonus post tomorrow, but if I don't and you're interested in some compelling stats re the games in New England, Cleveland, and Seattle, shoot us an e-mail at vinnyandmarco@gmail.com and join our community. I'll send the stats out to the regular readers tomorrow.

NFL Picks Week 2: Broncos vs Chiefs ATS & More

This week on Facebook (which is sadly how most of the world's stories start these days), I was nominated to participate in #5daysofgratitude, which means five days of posting things I'm grateful for and nominating others to do the same. Most people, myself included, start with the basics - family, friends, employment, 99 cent taco night - but as the days go by and we reach a little deeper, that's where we find the real things that keep us going. Or, if you're like me, you kind of trail off on day four and hope nobody notices.



After almost completing the assignment, it occurred to me that if people were being honest - and by honest I mean not for the benefit of the 700 Facebook friends they desperately want to convince that they are thoughtful, young, attractive and funny - the generic stuff would probably slide down the list in favor of HBO mini series True Detective, the new medical marijuana laws in Colorado, or in my (red)neck of the woods really, really big tires on really, really small trucks.



I'm not judging, I'm just saying.

When it came to my list, I too wanted the world (AKA the three people who still check out my FB page) to know that I love being a dad and husband, but by day two I was already talking about the San Francisco Giants, and counting down the hours to a Monday Night Football double header.
Don't get me wrong. I love my wife and kid infinitely more than I've ever loved anything, but baseball, basketball, football - those have been my loves since before I even knew how babies were made.



Although I have every bit of faith my marriage will last and my love for my daughter will transcend her inevitable departure into the world, when I do grow old and my memory and facial recognition crumble in the wake of dementia or Alzheimers, I firmly believe it will be the things like Orange Fridays, the sound of the MNF theme song, or perhaps the drone of Vin Scully's voice resonating through his 114th year in the broadcast booth that will feel more like home than anything else.



I'm grateful I'm not that guy.

Reminder: If you're going to gamble, and you're not very good at it - open an account with 1Vice, because they will refund your September misery to the tune of 40% of your net losses. Just click on the Icon to the right for the details. They have competitive lines, great bonus offers, and best of all - did I mention you get 40% of your net losses back this month. Plus the rest of the months they'll give 30% back to bet again. If you feel like betting against our picks - that's a great insurance plan. Even if you plan on betting with us, it's nice to know your other picks are insured. That's good stuff.

Now let's get to our second Friday Five of this young season.

Friday Five Week 1 Record: 3-2 ATS* 

Friday Five Season to Date: 3-2 ATS

*I missed on a bonus pick on Monday, but Marco had nothing to do with that.

NFL Week 2 Friday Five Confidence Picks

5. Jacksonville Jaguars (+6) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS: If the Jaguars can jump out to a seventeen point lead against the Philadelphia Eagles before losing by two and a half touchdowns, we have no doubt they can lose to the Redskins by less than two field goals. This is definitely a play against the Redskins rather than for the Jags. Nonetheless, take the points.



4. Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) over SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: Let's face it. The Seattle Seahawks are still very good at playing football. Until proven otherwise, we're rolling with them to have dominating wins against everyone except maybe the Forty Niners. Give up the points at number four.



3. Kansas City Chiefs (+13) over DENVER BRONCOS: Two many points. The Colts caught the Broncos coasting in the second half and almost completed a comeback last week. No doubt that will be a wake-up call to Denver, but in a division game this early in the year with players still healthy and fired up, there's no way an Andy Reid teams goes to Mile High unprepared. Although the Chiefs are only 4-8 ATS in their last 12 division games, computer predictions (Marco and I flicking folded up papers through each others pointer fingers) have this game coming down to the wire with the Broncos eking out a 34-31 victory.



2. Detroit Lions (+2.5) over CAROLINA PANTHERS: The public is so ridiculous jumping all over the Detroit Lions just because they manhandled the clearly inferior New York Giants at home Monday Night. And by ridiculous, I mean they're absolutely right. We don't usually back Monday Night winners because they don't have value, but here's the stat that sold us: Carolina is just 5-15 SU and 5-14-1 ATS in home openers since entering the league, including 0-8-1 ATS as a favorite. Cam or no Cam, we'll take those odds, the Lions, and the points thank you very much.



1. Houston Texans (-2.5) over OAKLAND RAIDERS: Last week the Houston Texans handled their business at home against the Washington Redskins, sparking the "new team new season" conversations that come with early season success. Meanwhile, the Raiders went to New York and instilled hope in Jets fans that they might be blessed with another mediocre team this season. Dating back to last year, however, we all know both of these teams have struggled. The Texans are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games and the Raiders are 1-4 ATS/0-5 SU, and if my memory serves me correctly they were better at covering large spreads on the road than small ones at home. That being said, the UNDER 40 looks great. Officially, however, we're rolling with Harvard grad and current Wonderlic Score leader Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Houston Texans to move to 2-0 SU/ATS. It's going to be ugly.



I'm grateful that's late rather than never. Tell us what you're grateful for in the comments section. Be honest - we'll still be your Facebook friends.

May the Spreads Be With You,

Vinny and Marco