Final Four: Does a Badger Poop in the Woods?

Oh crap, I forgot. My apologies to anyone who has been seduced into believing my opinions on these matters are better than their own. Between you and me, the truth I've uncovered in my two years as a self-proclaimed handicapper is that gambling is just a fancy word for "expensive guessing." Sure there are computer programs out there that can simulate games 50 million times or tell you that a team is 1-9 ATS since 1907 when playing on back-to-back nights against teams with mascots that are water-dwelling reptiles that hibernate during the autumn months in the southern hemisphere, but does that mean it's a trend or that the poor, little reptile is due? 

  "Take the points, man. I'm due."

TSZ Welcomes: Speaking of which, we'd like to give a warm, TSZ welcome to our newest follower - Sin. A great moniker, and obviously a brilliant mind for joining our community. Welcome aboard, buddy.

At TSZ we try not to read too much into historical trends, but will take recent history into account along with the psychological edges as they apply in the moment. The thing I love about college basketball that also makes it difficult to 'cap is the fact that it's being played by kids who still make mistakes, still rise to an occasion unexpectedly or fade to the background inexplicably. The reason March Madness is so much more exciting than the NBA playoffs is that you only get one shot, so you'd better bring your A game. Does anyone really believe Mercer or Stephen F. Austin would have advanced in a best of seven series. 

  

"Best of Seven? No I don't like that idea at all."

So now we've arrived at the last of the three mini-tournaments and we have two fantastic and intriguing match-ups. Marco and I have already clinched a plus .500 ATS tournament, but we'd like to bring out totals above par, so we're going all in with every possible prediction you can imagine. Okay, just teams and totals, but it feels like we're going all in. Although our CBSSports bracket has us dwelling in the cellar, our current official picks record looks something like this:

Teams: 14-9 ATS

Totals: 1-3 O/U

Connecticut Huskies (+6.5) over Florida Gators: This is not just a Gator Hater picking. We love the way the Huskies have started games. It has taken us three weeks to jump on the bandwagon, but we now believe that the Huskies are a team of destiny. And by that we mean destined to lose by four in the national semi-finals. The total in this game is set too low for a game that will come down to free throws in the end. In fact, we believe the charity stripe will be UConn's pathway back under the cover at the end as they make their shots and the Gators miss just enough free throws to allow the Huskies to cover and get the OVER 126.5.

Wisconsin Badgers (+2) over Kentucky Wildcats: Badgers? We don't need no stinkin' Badgers. Oh yes we do. This is a classic match-up of an experienced, veteran Wisconsin team against a young, NBA-laden Calipari squad. The difference between other Badger teams and this one is that they play offense as well as they play defense. Because of this and their tendency to slow the game down on offense, we taking both the underdog and the UNDER 139.

See you all on Monday.

May the Spreads Be With You,

Vinny and Marco