NFL Picks Week 17: Packers vs Lions ATS & More

Season to Date: 38-36 ATS 

Last Week: 1-4 ATS 
Top Picks to Date: 10-5 ATS 

It's Vin-mania 2014 as my extended family has descended upon us, stretching Christmas and Boxing Day into the New Year. The resulting lack of time has me posting a Friday Five on Saturday morning while praying that Week 17 hurtles us into the post-season (where we've always thrived) with some momentum.

It's definitely garbage time in the NFL with only a handful of meaningful games left on the schedule. As Marco and I are wont to do, we're passing on the potential money-making games between off-season bound squads and bringing you our thoughts on the games that matter most.

In the beginning of the season, picking NFL games is like shooting fish in an ocean. Generally you aim at the big ones and hope for the best. By the middle of the NFL season, the ocean shrinks and Marco and the fish that have failed to cover the spread become our #1 targets. At the end of the year, however, the fish are who they are, they've established their patterns and the question becomes whether to Back the trend or Buck It. Sometimes we just say, "Buck it."

Week 17 Friday Five - Backing or Bucking

#5. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+1) over San Diego Chargers: Meaningful game for both teams. The Chiefs are 2-8 SU/3-7 ATS against the AFC West but we're Bucking rather than Backing this trend. The home field advantage will be just enough for Kansas City to win. This is our least confident play, but sometimes that should be your most confident. Take the Chiefs.

#4. Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) over the PITTSBURGH STEELERS: The Steelers and their much improved offense has gone 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS against the AFC North in their last 6 home games. Cincinnati, on the other hand, has quietly won their past four road games and their only blemish in the past five weeks was a home trouncing to the Steelers. This line is inflated. Buck the Steelers and Back the Bengals.

#3. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (+4) over New Orleans Saints: 91% of the public is backing the Saints in the most meaningless game they've ever played under Sean Peyton. Lovie Smith has more experience this year with meaningless games. The Saints are also 4-10 ATS in their last 14 as favorites. We'll take the team that has known for weeks they weren't headed to the post-season over the team that just blew it last week.

#2. Detroit Lions (+7.5) over GREEN BAY PACKERS: The Lions are 0-4 ATS as a dog of 7+ with Matthew Stafford at the helm. Aaron Rodgers is a bit banged up. This is the game of the century for the Lions and we believe they will be ready. We might be influenced by our desire to see a close game, but we'll Buck the Lambeau magic and back the Lions.

#1. ATLANTA FALCONS (-3.5) over Carolina Panthers: We'll back the trend that the home team in this series is 4-0 ATS. They also have the better/healthier/more experienced quarterback. Take the Falcons.

May the Spreads Be With You All,

Vinny and Marco

NFL Picks Week 16: Bengals vs Broncos ATS & So Much More

Season to Date: 37-33 ATS 

Last Week: 3-2 ATS 

Top Picks to Date: 10-4 ATS 

When I was growing up, I divided my time between the north coast of California and the west coast of India. During my stints in the latter, until the age of six years old, we lived in a fishing village without electricity, running water, or the subsequent gluttony that comes with having those amenities. Kerosene lamps flickered in the houses after sundown as we read, played, ate, and without the constant hum of some sort of technology or appliance in the background. No television, no stereos, no refrigerator, and also nothing taken for granted.

 

Each morning, the Ice Man (this is way before Top Gun) would push his bike through the thick sand to our house and deliver a block of solid water which we would place inside our Styrofoam box/fridge. After that, the Veggy Lady, the Fruit Merchant, and the Fish Walla (no not the nineties band) would cruise the neighborhood selling their wares and we'd purchase what we needed for the day, or at the very most the weekend. There was no stock-piling or hoarding of food, just a simple day-to-day life of appreciation and serenity. 

Last week, I got to revisit those memories with my five year-old daughter when a tree on our property took out a power line, a phone line, and left us without Internet for a week even after the other two were restored. School was cancelled in our district, and we got to have an extra family day as we watched the rain come down and the PG & E trucks drive by. That, dear readers, is why there was no Friday Five last week. I suppose I could driven to town, but I didn't feel like trying to crank out a post in the bustle of a one-Starbucks town environment. Not my bag, baby. We'll try to make it up to you with our Week 16 picks.

Football is getting exciting. Playoff births are up in the air across the board are up for grabs and while the usual suspects in the AFC (Pats, Broncos, Colts) have punched their tickets, but only the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC have secured a spot in the second season. Does this mean teams with added motivation are guaranteed to win this weekend? Or are teams like the Niners finally going to relax and cut loose a bit in hopes for inviting the Chargers to join them for an off-season fishing trip? Let's take a look. 

NFL Week 16 Friday Five

#5. Denver Broncos (-3) over CINCINNATI BENGALS: The Bengals have a terrific home field advantage, but unfortunately they have a quarterback who can't win prime time games. Andy Dalton is 2-9 ATS under the lights which, coupled with the fact that Denver is still fighting for the number one seed (although I think Manning would be thrilled if the Colts got it and he could play indoors in the championship), and we're giving up the small chalk on the road.

#4. Detroit Lions (-9) over CHICAGO BEARS: This will feel like a home game to the Lions. They are giving up about 17 points/game on the season and will be facing a Jimmy Clausen who is 1-9 SU/3-7 ATS in his professional career. We don't roll with big lines very often, but the Lions are on their way to an NFC North title and they will be making a statement in that regard on Sunday.

#3. Indianapolis Colts (+3) over DALLAS COWBOYS: From Week 13 on, the Cowboys are 3-19-1 ATS in their last 24 games. Couple that with the injury to DeMarco Murray and this is easy money.

#2. CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3.5) over Cleveland Browns: Even an injured Cam Newton is better than an inexperienced Johnny Football. The Panthers could still win their division by winning out and having the Falcons and the Saints lose just once. Amazing.

#1. SAN FRANCISCO FORTY NINERS (-1) over San Diego Chargers: The seventy-two percent of the public backing the Chargers obviously thinks that motivation will play a role in this game. But this is the NFL, a league full of players and coaches who have worked their asses off to survive the competition for as long as they have because even when they're not playing for the playoffs they're still playing for their futures. As unappealing as Jim Harbaugh is as a human being, he is a motivator of men. We think he will promise one million dollars of his exit contract to Michigan to anyone on the Niners who scores a touchdown. Take the Niners this evening at #1. 

Go Wolverines and May the Spreads Be With You All,

Vinny and Marcox

NFL Picks Week 14: Ravens vs Dolpins ATS; Friday Five

Season to Date: 34-31 ATS 

Last Week: 1-4 ATS 

Top Picks to Date: 9-4 ATS 

This morning I had to disappoint my five year-old daughter with news of a cancelled play date. As I was delivering the news I decided to present it as a good news bad news scenario and suddenly found myself riveted as she paused before making her choice. Personally, I've always been one to choose the bad news first so I have something to look forward to. I'd much rather get hit with the hard stuff and have a soft place to land than find out something exciting only to have it diminished by something god-awful. 

In what felt like a monumental, personality-defining moment, it took all of two seconds for my daughter to say, "Good news." Well, when you get home you get to watch Snow Days with Granny C. "Awesome," she replied. She didn't even remember there was bad news. I delivered it anyway - Sorry, sweetie, Lily's sick and can't play after school. "I don't mind," she said, clearly happy enough about Snow Days. Maybe I've had it all wrong. Maybe Good news would have cushioned the blows all these years. Let's experiment.

The good news, dear readers, is we're 9-4 ATS with our #1 picks and still hovering above .500 13 weeks into the NFL season. The bad news is we're 2-8 ATS (0-2 ATS on our #1's) over the past 2 weeks.

VS

The bad news is the losing streak here at TSZ continues as we've gone 2-8 ATS in our last 10 but the good news is our #1's are still 9-4 ATS on the year and we're hovering above .500 overall.. 

I think my daughter might be on to something. Let's get to the picks.

NFL Week 14 Friday Five Top Confidence Picks

#5. CLEVELAND BROWNS (+3.5) over Indianapolis Colts: Yeah, I know - we should change our name to The Brownzone with the number of times we've taken Cleveland. I still argue that they've been good to us, but I don't know if I can back that with facts or numbers anymore. Here's the thing - nobody likes Johnny Manziel except for Johnny Manziel. Brian Hoyer's teammates are going to play their tails off for his job and Josh Gordon is going to have a field day with Colts top corner being questionable for Sunday's match-up. We like the Browns to frustrate Luck all afternoon and not only cover but win. Stat of the day: Cleveland is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 off an SU loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record.



#4. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-6) over New York Jets: The Vikings may be bad, but the Jets are awful. New York is 1-6-1 ATS following an ATS cover (very general useful stat) while the Vikings are 1-5 ATS after an ATS cover of more than 14 points (very specific not very useful stat). What compels us to take Minny is Jeff Grant tweeting that the Vikes are now 10-0 ATS in their last 10 home games in the second half of seasons. Team on the rise people. Well, against the Jets that is. 



#3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10) over DETROIT LIONS: The Bucs have been bringing in the bucks as road dogs this season. Lovie Smith has his guys playing their hearts out despite their losing record and no hopes of a post-season birth. Couple the fact that Tampa Bays is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games (all as +6.5 dogs) with the fact that Detroit is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after an ATS win and you've got yourself a recipe for risk-free betting. That's an oxymoron. Take the points.



#2. HOUSTON TEXANS (-6) over Jacksonville Jaguars: Mark our words, JJ Watt will not only swat a potential touchdown on defense, he will also catch a touchdown which he will be asked to throw to himself. The kid can do it all. Give up the points and watch JJ pick the six right back for you. The Texans will be 6-1 ATS as favorites after this game.




#1. Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS: This game has the smell of a 17-16 barn burner. Not sure who wins, but well take the points no matter who's getting them. In this case it's the road challenged Ravens, but guess what - the Ravens are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with winning records and 5-2 ATS after their last 7 SU losses. Meanwhile, Miami is a paltry 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Sundays after a Monday Night Football appearance. Take the points. 



Five Bonus Picks: Why not? A full schedule of games again. Lots to choose from. Besides, we're kind of in the twilight of our careers with TSZ's final season coming to a close. Let's try to pad the stats where we can. Here are the five that didn't make the cut this week and why we like them:

* WASHINGTON REDSKINS (+3) over St. Louis Rams: Home dog + the fact that the Rams are 1-12 ATS as road favorites playing against a team with revenge motive.

* DENVER BRONCOS (-9.5) over Buffalo Bills: When the Broncos are favored big, they respond. They are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 7 as 9+ point favorites.

* GREEN BAY PACKERS (-12.5) over Atlanta Falcons: Battle of division leaders? Sort of. Only GB comes in with a 9-3 record (undefeated at home) while ATL boasts a 5-7 (2-4 road) record. The Packers look unbeatable when they play at Lambeau while the Falcons are now 3-13 ATS in their last 16 upset wins as a home dog. 

* OAKLAND RAIDERS (+8) over San Francisco Forty Niners: Kaepernick's indecision + continued in-fighting in SF + Raiders 5-1 ATS record as 7+ point dogs = WIN.

* SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (+3.5) over New England Patriots: Philip Rivers plays his best football under pressure. New England plays their only bad football on the road. The Pats are now 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games and 2-6 ATS over the past two seasons as road favorites.

May the Spreads Be With You,

Vinny and Marco