NFL Week 15 Picks ATS: 32 Teams Guaranteed to Win, Lose, or Cover

LAST WEEK:  7-9 ATS 

SEASON TO DATE: 110-99 ATS

THURSDAY THREE FAN PICKS: 1-2 ATS / 6-6 ATS on the season

FRIDAY FIVE CONFIDENCE PICKS:2-3 ATS last week, but still 25-15 ATS on the season.

Coffee Thank You's: Let's jump right in with these, so as not to disrupt the flow of Marco's picks. He needs all the help he can get this week. Special thanks go out to one of our newest readers, Francis M., who sent us coffee regardless of our god-awful Friday Five last week. We hope we can do you right this week. Also, although he said he doesn't need the shout outs, we'd like to say, "Thanks again, Todd," who is looking at being a stock holder in TSZ at this rate. 

And now for something completely different...

When I awoke this morning to a message in the TSZ Inbox that read, "12-12-12 - Happy Aaron Rogers Day," two things occurred to me simultaneously. First of all, I was thrilled for this Green Bay Packers fan that he could find joy on a Wednesday morning in December, dressed to the nines in green and yellow, and likely high-fiving thousands of other cheese heads taking the day off in Wisconsin. 

Secondly, I realized that we are also getting dangerously close to the end of the Mayan calendar. If you believe in the Mayan predictions, the world as we know it will disappear in a cloud of white smoke in just nine short days. Personally, I believe this apocalyptic foreshadowing was probably just tantamount to their world as they knew it coming to an end in a cloud of white people, and they were approximately 600 years off. 

                                 

Regardless of the reasons, be it a day honoring Rogers, Favre, Kaepernick, Smith, or just the end of the world, it is a gentle reminder to us all that life is a gift; that each day on the planet might be our very last one...concussion free. 

If you have close friends you haven't spoken to in a while, pick up the phone and give them a call. If you have Facebook friends whom you've never spoken with, update your damn status and let them know what you're Liking these days. If your children still give a shit about you, give them a hug, a word of encouragement, or teach them about parlays and teasers. And if your husband or wife hasn't left you yet, take a moment to put down the mouse, laptop, i-phone, and let them know that you're never going to change but that you appreciate them loving you for who you are. 

Then pick that mouse, laptop, i-phone back up, because we have some football handicapping to do. Week 15 looks like it will be the end of the playoff world for some teams, while the dangling thread of hope will continue for others. Let's get to it, shall we? Our picks are always bold (we're told) and HOME TEAMS are in CAPS.

Thursday Night Football

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: While I'm trying to get fired up for this game by watching Loni Anderson in reruns of WKRP, the Eagles are getting juiced by watching reruns of seasons when they used to be good. Although Nick Foles is improving at quarterback with every game, their offense will not be enough to match Big Red, Medium Green, and little Andrew Hawkins. This week The Law Firm will be serving the Eagles defense with a summons to appear in his highlight reel. Cincinnati needs this win to get to the playoffs, while Philadelphia needs Michael J. Fox and a Delorean to get there. 

                           

Sunday Morning Football

Green Bay Packers (-2.5) over CHICAGO BEARS: Remember Groundhog Day with Bill Murray? This is what Bears fans must feel like - every year they start out great, Super Bowl talk ensues, injuries pile up, and it's back to the drafting board. While Cutler is trying to get a discount double check from his head and neck specialist, the Bears to should get some freakin' O-linemen. Green Bay will make it six in a row in Chicago this Sunday. 

New York Giants (+1.5) over ATLANTA FALCONS: In eleven games against opponents other than Carolina, Matt Ryan was sacked an average of once per game. In those other two games, the Panthers D-line took him down nine times. You know who has a better front four than Carolina? The Giants. That's who. Matty Ice-Cold will be lit up by Umenyiora and Co. as the Falcons revert to their 2011 playoff form. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: "Mutiny on the Bounty's what it's all about..." We care so little about this game, we have put out a bounty on Fox if they broadcast it anywhere but Louisiana and Florida. Meanwhile, the Big Easy Bounty was finally been put to bed yesterday by former NFL commissioner Paul Tagliabue who said evidence in the matter was corrupted by coaches. The same has been said about the New Orleans defense all year. The Bucs have not only been spread-covering fools this year, but are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 trips to New Orleans. Take the points and four Josh Freeman touchdowns all the way to the semi-finals of your fantasy league. Just hypothetically. 

                              

Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) at SAINT LOUIS RAMS: The only question in this game is can the Rams stop Adrian Peterson? The short answer is no. And in this case no does not mean maybe with a little pressure and alcohol. Calvin Johnson might be Megatron, but AP has a bionic knee, which coupled with his gluten-free, vegan, low-carb diet has made him this year's MVP front-runner. The Rams are great at home, but the only team they've beaten this year by more than six points is the Arizona Cardinals. That's practically like losing.

Washington Redskins (+7.5) over CLEVELAND BROWNS: This is the line that came out in our pool yesterday. Here's a trend - the UNDER is 10-0-1 in the Browns last 11 December games and 10-2 in the Browns last 12 home games. With those stats, how the hell is either team ever favored by more than a touchdown? Shanny Jr. might not have the RG3 action figure daddy got him last spring, but the Kirk Cousins blow-up doll will suffice against a Browns team whose current three game winning streak has been against Kansas City, Oakland, and the Pittsburgh AARPs.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (-7.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars: What? A home team? Finally, Marco. It's appropriate that The Who Gives a Crap Bowl is taking place in Miami - in honor of the six week layover between the end of the college season and the "playoffs." Apparently empty stadiums are difficult to get fired up in, so Jacksonville will feel right at home in Miami, they just haven't been very good no matter where they play. In a game like this, go with the more consistent defense. Dolphins reign in the Revenge of the Under Water Mascot. 

                              

Denver Broncos (-2.5) over BALTIMORE RAVENS: The fact that Baltimore, who hadn't lost at home for two years prior to the debacle against Pittsburgh two weeks ago, is giving up points to the Denver tells you just how far from grace their defense has fallen. Talk about a team in desperate need of an inspirational game day tragedy. C'mon Ravens fans, do something - otherwise the Functional Neck Gang is going to make it so you have to visit Mile High in January. 

Indianapolis Colts (+8.5) over HOUSTON TEXANS: The Texans have been exposed. Their defense is as depleted as Chuck Pagano's white blood cell count, but its not motivating anyone to do anything. The Colts, on the other hand, keep finding ways to impress their recovering coach and push towards the playoffs. A win on Sunday or a loss by Cincinnati or the Jets and Indianapolis goes to the playoffs. A loss by nine or less and we go on to the afternoon games happy. 

Sunday Afternoon 

Carolina Panthers (+3.5) over SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: I read somewhere that San Diego is the best 5-8 team in NFL history. They will now be the best 5-9 team with that claim. The Chargers have been awesome in December, covering 9 of their last 11 games, while Carolina is a pathetic 1-6 ATS against the AFC West. We know that, Vegas knows that, and we believe this is a line coupled with a stat that is begging us to take the turnover prone Chargers. Not on Marco's watch. 

Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) over BUFFALO BILLS: Last week the Seahawks covered a 55 points spread, so we're feeling pretty good about giving up 4.5 to an inconsistent Buffalo team - especially since the game is being played at the Rogers Centre north of the border and all of TSZ's Canadian followers have promised to go there, tailgate, and cheer on the pointy birds. Besides, the far superior Smarties will replace Marshawn Lynch's Skittles as he runs circles around his former team in a Canadian sugar-induced rage. 

                           

Detroit Lions (-6.5) over ARIZONA CARDINALS: Remember when Arizona was 4-0, leading the NFC West, and looking like a playoff caliber team? Neither do they. In this compelling Who Sucks Worse Against the Spread Championship game, the Lions enter Sunday with a 2-9-1 ATS record in their last 12 road games, while Arizona boasts a 2-6-1 ATS record during their 9 game losing streak. Leshoure bet is to take the Lions. LOL.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) over DALLAS COWBOYS: The Cowboys, much like the Chiefs before them, used up all their Tragedy Juice last weekend. How are the Cowboys going to beat the Steelers without Dez Bryant? More importantly, how is Dez Bryant beat his mother with a broken finger? Look for sexual assault to reign over physical assault - again - as Rothliesberger finds his stride in Dallas this weekend.

OAKLAND RAIDERS (-2.5) over Kansas City Chiefs: Brady Quinn Medicine Woman reveals why his show as an NFL quarterback is being canceled. The Oakland Raiders reveal that Al Davis is actually still alive and running the team. Although the Chiefs have been awesome Oakland, winning 8 of 9 SU, and the Raiders have been awful there losing 7 of 8, this game between these two terrible teams will probably be won 3-0 on a 97 yard field goal by Sebastian Janikowski. 

Sunday Night Football

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-3.5) over San Francisco Forty Niners: Tom Brady dates a supermodel. Wes Welker dates a Hooters Hotie. Basic principals of mathematics have taught us that Two Hot WAGS do in fact make a right. Plus, New England doesn't lose in December 21-0 SU, Belichick doesn't lose to rookie quarterbacks, and certainly not to his illegitimate love child, Jim Harbaugh. 

                                  

Monday Night Football

TENNESSEE TITANS (-1.5) over New York Jets: The Jets are also going to be -1.5 coaches when Rex Ryan gets suspended for eating Mark Sanchez during a TV time out in yet another Canadian sugar-induced rage. We think ESPN should be allowed to call audibles on Monday Night football games after Week 13, because of games like this one. Hopefully we'll either have clinched our pool or be entirely out of it so we don't have to tune in for any of this game. 

That's all for this week folks. Don't forget to submit your Thursday Threes by tomorrow morning, so I can get them up by the end of the day.

Good night and good luck,

Vinny and Marco

Monday Morning Quarterback

Although it wasn't a complete disaster thanks to our solid afternoon and evening picks, we still need a KC cover tonight to keep our .500+ streak alive. And let me be the first to say, "F- You Rex Ryan." I didn't see the game, but what happened to his alleged mastery against rookie QBs? Give us Tebow, Hail Marys, Our Fathers, and Jesus F-ing Christ ASAP so we can cover some bets.

That being said - and it had to be said - if there's one thing we've learned in life it is that adversity, when embraced, is the greatest fortifier of all. Translation: Losing makes us better gamblers? Isn't that the best thing you've ever heard? Sounds ridiculous, but it's true. When in your life have you paused during a winning streak to truly analyze your success or say to yourself, "I should really take a moment to think about what I'm doing right?" Instead we cavalierly march on, taking for granted that we finally have everything figured out. Until a weekend like this one comes along. 

Please read on, this is as important as the Week 11 Picks ATS we hope to have to you by tomorrow. Here are some things we learned at The Spread Zone during our slightly bumpy weekend. 

#1. The Best Fans in the World

Every team in the NFL - with the exception of the Jacksonville Jaguars - declares unequivocally that they have the best fans in the world. After wins, players and management alike acknowledge they couldn't have done it without their "Twelfth Man." Pedestrian teams like the Seattle Seahawks (5-0 at home, 1-3 on the road) are playoff bound and credit the noise in their stadium for disrupting their competition enough to pull out wins, almost losses, and flat out steals (Green Bay). The reasons NFL teams cite their 77-56 SU dominance at home: their fans, the best fans in the league. 

                             

This weekend, however, proved to the rest of the cyber-world that The Spread Zone is the team with the best fans in not only the NFL, but as Maurice Sendak would say, "the world all around." Thank you faithful followers and supporters for your kind words, your encouragement, and all the coffee.

Coffee Thank You's: Generous donations by Mysterio, John, and an anonymous source I would love to give credit to kept Marco and I caffeinated in anticipation of the gambling rush that is Sunday/Mondays.

Welcomes: We have new followers, but still a hearty welcome to Beers n Brats for Breakfast, WannaBBallers, Davez, and the return of OGA - that's the Original Anonymous. 

As Mysterio put it, "Everyone has a bad week boys, keep your chins up! Now comes your toughest challenge yet.....bouncing back. I've already looked at next week and it's not getting any easier."

#2 Sometimes a Tie Makes You a Better Gambler

Yesterday Jimmy the Weasel took me to the Niners-Rams game at old Candlestick Park. We drove down the night before, got to the park early on Sunday, enjoyed the festive tailgating, then witnessed an historic NFL event - A freakin' tie. During those four hours of entertaining football, roller coaster emotions, and frenzied atmosphere something very interesting happened. Although I walked into the stadium a Forty Niner fan, I walked out a better gambler. 

Jimmy the Weasel is a Rams fan and his team started strong yesterday jumping out to a 14-0 lead. Idiotic Forty Niner fans started equally strong, criticizing play calls and declaring their psychic prowess when the Niners would fall short of a first down. "See I told your that wouldn't work." They were loud, drunk, and obnoxious, which I know is par for the course, bu they were also really, really stupid. "Put Colin Kaepernick in," one of them shouted, and by the second quarter their wish was granted thanks to an Alex Smith concussion. 

The game was ho-hum until the second half when things got interesting - like the idiotic fans behind me saying things they just didn't think about first. With the Niners driving in the Red Zone, Vernon Davis was flanked right, and one of the belligerent fans stood up and yelled, "Yeah baby, give me some V.D. in the end zone." I almost sprayed my beverage over the woman in front of me - which she might not have noticed because she had a giant beehive hairdo obscuring my view. 

                             

If you saw the game you know how it ended, but what you might not know if you haven't attended an NFL tie is how confused and subdued Americans get when a game ends with this result. The one who desired V.D. in his end zone said, "What? No double OT? But in college..." Another naively said, "What? A fucking tie? This isn't college football." There were no bragging rights, no screaming fans yelling, "Yeah mother fuckers, we tied your ass," just confusion and a complete lack of closure. As we were herded out with the masses, Jimmy and I decided to fuel the fires by yelling loudly, "What is this European Soccer?" and "There are no ties in America." 

Ultimately I left Candlestick with little respect for my fellow Forty Niner fans along with the certainty that I would have felt the same way at every other stadium across the country. As a result, this diminished loyalty to any team in the NFL will ultimately make me - and Marco who has no allegiances - stronger gamblers. 

Just wait. You'll see...

Thanks for all your support, everyone. Coffee donations are awesome - top right of the page if you want to contribute to the cause - comments are better, and followers are the best. Marco and I are going to discuss getting some fan participation into The Spread Zone now that we have such intelligent and loyal NFL fans, so put on your Handicapping Hats and get ready to be published writers. 

See you tomorrow,

Vinny and Marco