The Golden State of Basketball: Playoff Picks ATS Day 1

Is it just me or do this year's NBA playoff match-ups have the distinct smell of instant classics? Whether it's Harden's return to Oklahoma City, the Lakers-Spurs return to an age-old rivalry, or the Nuggets-Warriors return to ABA-style balling, every first round series offers some level of intrigue to the average basketball fan. Add a boatload of media hype, an increasingly physical seven game series, and a point spread to the equation, and you've got two solid months of fun-tertainment.

Picking series winners in the NBA is like shooting fish in a barrel...that's really, really full of fish...and has no water. Unlike football, baseball, NCAA March Madness, or even hockey, in the NBA the better team with better players almost always wins a seven game series. The most notable exception in recent history was the Golden State Warriors upsetting the Dallas Mavericks in the first round of the 2007 playoffs thanks to amazing team play, a frenetic Oracle crowd, and Mark Cuban's t-shirts being  distressingly tight.

                         

Unfortunately, these upsets are very rare, as the fashion police have increased their presence in the Dallas area to such an extent that the Mavericks didn't even make the playoffs. Their absence, along with deliciously large point spreads, makes picking individual games in the NBA a lot more fun. Your team could get swept, but you could win all four games. Your team could win in seven and you might go 6-1 ATS.

When I was on a family vacation in Las Vegas two months ago, envisioning every casino sports being renamed The Spread Zone (trademark Vinny and Marco), I stopped into one with Marco on the phone and we placed a small wager on a four-game parlay. Sadly, 3-1 ATS at the casinos does not win that wager, and thanks to James Harden's 46 points against OKC, we missed out on $600.

                          

That being said, Marco and I are going to attempt to pick every single game of the NBA post-season. We will be posting on a daily basis in the early rounds, ranking our picks for the day and assigning confidence values in descending order. Our most confident pick will be worth the number of games on the schedule and will descend from there down to a value of one. That way we will have a variety of ways with which to analyze our results. Everyone confused? Great. Let's move on. It will make sense, I promise.

1. Chicago Bulls (+4.5) over Brooklyn Nets: The Bulls have the playoff experience to work through the early adrenaline and road playoff atmosphere. Although Deron Williams is the best player in this series, Chicago's stifling defense and athleticism gives them a chance against everyone - especially in a single game. This is our most confident pick and gets a 4 point rating. 

                          

2. Memphis Grizzlies (+5) over Los Angeles Clippers: There's a lot of pressure in Game 1's for the home team. This has a tendency to lead to early turnovers. This will be one of the most closely contested series in the opening round no matter which court it's on. Look for an early surge by Memphis, an L.A. Clipper comeback, and a March Madness style buzzer beater for one of the teams. Unless it's a six pointer, we don't care which one. Take the points. This game is worth 3 points in our confidence rankings.

                          

3. Boston Celtics (+6.5) over New York Knicks: This game hinges on whether Carmelo can adjust if he's having an off day. Will he force the issue, or will be integrate the other parts of his game? On the other side of the ball, Boston is an organization whose current players have embraced its pride. They do not give up - EVER. Kevin Garnett will keep this game close even if he has to goal tend every single shot. Again, we're taking the road team with the points, although with only a 2 point confidence rating. 

                         

4. Golden State Warriors (+7.5) over Denver Nuggets: We're homers. We love the Warriors story. I don't think they'll win Game 1, but I'd bet a small amount of money that they cover and steal Game 2. George Karl is a notorious first round loser, and if the Warriors can drink a lot of water, adjust to the altitude, catch a Rockies game to practice slowing things down, and start seeing the ball go through the hoop, they might start playing defense, too. Confidence rating of 1 point.

                         
                                 Did you say that's the exit?

Yes we did, Karl. Yes we did.

Vinny and Marco