NBA Playoff Picks ATS Day 7: The Way of the Pessimistic Warrior

Poor Marco.

He's a life long Golden State Warriors fan who is so unfamiliar with success that he actually organized a funeral for the team when it was announced that David Lee was out for the series. As a relatively new Golden State convert/bandwagon jumper, I tried to infuse Marco with some of my optimism the day before the Warriors shocked the NBA world in Denver, but it was no use. It was like talking to a Cubs fan, and 1975 may as well have been 1908 because in either case Marco wasn't born yet.

Now, in the wake of a shooting performance so stellar analysts are drawing comparisons between Curry/Thompson and the legendary New York Knicks "Rolls Royce Backcourt" of Earl Monroe and Walt Frazier, Marco is still reluctant pick his Warriors...at home...with a crowd so intoxicating they inspired the early exit of a one-seed who dared enter Oracle back in '07. In fact, Marco is watching Game 3 with his fellow pessimists, and I'm pretty sure they not only dress in anticipatory black suits, but they also bring flasks of tears (no crying in front of each other) from previous gut-wrenching losses and covertly splash some into their beers if things look as though they're going to turn out "like they usually do."

                

Here's the reality of your half empty cup, Marco. NBA playoff series more often than not come down to the team with the best player or players on it. Although Denver's Andre Iguadala is an impressive athlete, Stephen Curry is the best player on the floor at any given time. Iguadala can jump higher, reach farther, and bench press more, but he can't seem to make free throws. Meanwhile, Curry can not only make any shot on the floor he can make opposing guards get lost in those...

                           

Sorry, I forgot what I was saying. What color are those eyes anyway?

Don't worry Marco, it's time to break out your old "Believe" shirt, because the Warriors will be playing in San Antonio by the middle end of next week.

Post-Season Record to Date: 11-8 ATS

Confidence Efficiency Rating (CER): 24/41 or .59

Top Confidence Picks Through Day 6: 5-1 ATS (AKA Money)

San Antonio Spurs (-4.5) over LOS ANGELES LAKERS: Steve Blake out indefinitely. Steve Nash doubtful. Steve Fisher moustachioed. And Steve Martin hilarious. I don't think this game merits a whole lot of analysis anymore. In lieu of the Darius Morris era starting tomorrow, I say the Lakers should bring the Fab Five back for one more start - make a little history.

                      

Oh wait, Juwan is still collecting rings in Miami. Never mind. Confidence Rating: 3 (most confident)

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (-1) over Denver Nuggets: Well, they're aren't going to lose by half a point, so we'll take the push if we have to. Please see all the reasons above in addition to the surprising emergence of Harrison Barnes soft shooting touch. The Warriors will win so big, the league is going to give them a bye to the conference finals.

                               

Remember that? Me neither, but it's the only Google image out there left from the 1975 championship game. Side bet - they'll have more pictures when the Warriors win their next one. Confidence Rating: 2

BOSTON CELTICS (-3) over New York Knicks: As a rule, if a line is ever smaller than the average number of times Kevin Garnett says mother fucker in a game (which is 4.3), then I take the Celtics and lay the points. This is a game where most of the action will be on the New York Knicks because of their convincing wins at home. The problem is, teams with their backs against the wall, especially experienced ones coached by Doc Rivers and led by Paul Pierce will play much harder than relaxed teams from the Big Apple that have a stranglehold on the series. I have no doubt the Knicks win this series, just not this game. Confidence Rating: 1

                      

See you tomorrow, fellow gamblers. May the spread be with us all.

Vinny and Marco