Continued Education: The Spread Range at The Spread Zone

It's sad when you get to the last few seconds of the Monday Night double header and find yourself reminiscing fondly about only being 4-6-1 ATS on Sunday Morning.

Well, Week 1 is almost in the books and we have very little to be proud of here at The Spread Zone. I'm watching the Texans complete their stupid, non-cover, OVER the total comeback against the home dog San Diego Chargers, and I'm embarrassed by the fact that flipping a coin would yielded better results than ours this week. In fact, on Sunday I actually $10 to my mother-in-law who knows absolutely nothing about gambling, spreads, or football. Who says knowledge is power? Perhaps her "Well, green is a more powerful color than red" philosophy is the way to go in a league with such incredible parity.

Preseason Record: 29-19 ATS (I need this here to feel better)

Preseason O/U Record: 13-3 (ditto)

NFL Week 1: 4-11-1 ATS (UGH)

NFL Week 1 O/U: 11-5 (Nice)

Mysterio's Parlays: 1-0 (Sweeeeeet)

Dan Gordon's Spread Range

Now on the to the continued education to see if we can't find a new edge or angle from which to look at the weeks to come. I know what you're thinking - why would you want continued education from a guy who just went 4-11? Well, have no fear, I know how to read. This is just another tool for your tool box.



First of all, you might be asking yourself, "What is The Spread Range?" Legendary NFL handicapper Dan Gordon, self-published author of Beat the Sports Book, will tell you it's a measure he developed in his professional work to track how teams are doing against the spread. The rationale is to have a somewhat objective measure to keep up with the oddsmakers who are so closely in tune with how teams are doing against the spread.



When teams are performing well against the spread, the oddsmakers look to make those teams more expensive to bet on the next week. On the other hand, a team who is not doing well against the spread will be made to appear more attractive by the oddsmakers by inflating or deflating the line depending on whether said team is a favorite or an underdog. Here's how Dan tracks teams, especially during the first four weeks of the season.

1. When a team covers a spread by .5 to 3 points, the team receives 1 point. Covering by 3.5 to 6 points earns a team 2 points. The chart below illustrates this scoring system.

Cover Margin       Spread Range Score
.5 to 3 pts.                        1
3.5 to 6 pts.                      2
6.5 to 9 pts.                      3
9.5 to 12 pts.                    4
12.5 to 15 pts.                  5
15.5 or more                    6

2. Losing to the point spread by the above margins gives a team a negative spread range score of the same values. For example, losing to the point spread by .5 to 3 points, yields a Spread Range Score of -1 and so on.

3. Look for games in the first four weeks of the season where there is a difference of ten or more points between the teams playing and bet the underdog.

Let's take an examples from Week 1



The Baltimore Ravens lost to the Denver Broncos 49-27 last Thursday as 8.5 point underdogs. Therefore they lost to the point spread by 13.5 (-22 point loss +8.5 handicap = 13.5) and are assigned -5 points on the week. Conversely, the Denver Broncos would be given +5 points on the week for their beating the spread by 13.5 (+22 - 8.5 handicap = 13.5). According to this system, if the Broncos were playing another -5 team this week and were the favorite, it would be wise to bet on the underdog. Similarly, if the Ravens were playing a team with a +5 or more Spread Range Score, Dan Gordon would recommend betting on the Ravens.

Although it's too early in the season for any of next week's match-ups to be influenced by this measure, the Manning Bowl gives us the largest differential at 6 (Broncos 5, Giants -1) and the Giants are the dogs. I'll continue to tally up the scores for each team and keep you posted as to which dogs to keep an eye on according to the spread range measure. Together we'll see if Dan really knows what he's talking about. I did just read another section in which he said, "Always be the home dog in a prime time game." Wish I'd read that last week, Houston.

Keep the faith, everyone. Games get easier to cap once we get a better idea of what each team has to offer. Please let us know if you have any questions about the spread range, this week's games, or even something as simple as the meaning of life. We're still undefeated ATS when it comes to that last one.

Catch you all back here tomorrow,

Vinny and Marco

8 NFL Betting Tips Gambling Pros Use to Win

The following is an article I cut and pasted for you, so you could skip the horrendous cloud of advertising on www.minyanville.com. As sports bettors - professional, novice, and/or just recreational, it's always a good idea to continue advancing our education. Every little bit helps, and every little bit used well is what separates sports betting from gambling. 

Vinny

8 NFL Betting Tips Gambling Pros Use to Win

We’re pretty sure that if you’re considering betting on football you’re in it to win it. We all know how it goes (consider yourself one of the lucky ones if this hasn’t happened to you): As soon as August comes along, you’re bound to get inundated with offers in the mail and phone calls galore from every bookie and their cousins, asking you to work with them because they have a good deal for you. Yeah, right. Here are some tips to keep you ahead of the pack.

1. The first step to saving your sanity and putting money in your pockets if you happen to win your bets is always, always, always playing with a reputable sportsbook. The horror stories abound about people never getting paid.

2. This tip may sound illogical after just saying that you should only work with a reputable book. However, most professional gamblers have two or more accounts at different sportsbooks. Why? Because they shop for the best lines and odds for each game that they bet on. You wouldn’t think twice about comparing prices when you are shopping for groceries, and there’s no reason why you shouldn’t do the same when you’re comparing lines. You should always make your bets based on the best line.

3. Betting for fun is one thing; betting to make a profit is a whole other ballgame. When it comes to your money, it pays to have some sort of system to manage it. If you’re going to start betting with guns blazing, then you might end up packing it in early and calling it quits just when you could be making some cool hard bucks. Don’t blow your bankroll every weekend by betting on everything that sounds like a good deal.

4. Create a bankroll. Most of you won’t make a living out of gambling on sports. There’s no one to impress, and nobody is going to care how much money you lost or if you’ve lost your college tuition on this weekend’s game. Do yourself a favor: Come up with a realistic figure of how much you’re willing to spend on betting and stick to that number. Keep things separate, and keep it fun.

5. Keep records. Do you know what bets win you more money? Do you know how many straight bets you’ve won vs. parlays? If you don’t, get your microscope ready and start looking at your bets with a clinical eye. Do you really think Warren Buffett is the world’s richest person because he doesn’t know what things are making him a profit? Of course he knows, and we bet that he drops whatever’s not working like a bad habit and sticks to what works religiously.

6. Consider the tortoise way of winning. It may not be flashy -- in fact, it’s probably way too boring -- but in the end, we all know who wins the race between the hare and the tortoise. Consider betting the same amount on every game. Sometimes what you think is the game of the century really isn’t. It’s the whole “not everything that shines is gold” thing -- and there’s actually a lot of thought behind this simple but powerful advice. If you’re not a pro, you shouldn’t weigh one game over another, no matter how much of a lock you think it is. Your solid plays usually end up losing more than your regular plays. (We hope it’s not true in your case, but we know it happens.) The fact is that the people that make the lines in Vegas are a pretty intelligent crowd; millions of dollars are won or lost on their choices, so you can bet they definitely know their stuff. This doesn’t mean that they don’t make mistakes, but only that you should consider what’s behind the line before you risk a wad of dollars on your pick.

7. Buy some earplugs and stop listening to what the sportscasters on ESPN are saying. Most of them haven’t placed a bet in their entire lives. There are your exceptions as always. But for the most part, they’re just reading off stats from a teleprompter.

8. Do your homework. Betting isn’t for suckers and nobody is paying you to lose games. So do yourself a favor and study, and actually handicap the games. Don't make blind picks based on your gut feeling or who your favorite team is.