NFL Picks Divisional Round: Fades Aren't Just Haircuts Anymore

Before we get to our NFL Divisional Round picks against the spread, let me first acknowledge a couple of our readers whose handicapping prowess is matched only by their generosity. As most of you know, The Spread Zone recently wrapped up its First Annual Texas Todd Recoup Your Ill Invested Money Friday Five Contest. Not only did more than a dozen contestants submit their picks every week for half the season, but several participants also emerged as decent handicappers. In the end, Maneesh and Dan P. finished first and second, taking home the cash prizes and leaving Marco and I to share one third place, homemade, TSZ t-shirt. I'm calling dibs on the first month right now.

When I tried to send Maneesh and Dan their winnings, however, Dan P. said, "In lieu of sending me anything, why don't you treat yourselves to some specialty coffees for all your time and dedication this year; you deserve it! Failing that, donation to a local food bank or charity would be great." Endeavoring not to fail, on my next visit to Starbucks I will not only treat myself to a ginormous specialty coffee but I will also purchase one for the most depraved and caffeine-deprived looking person in the joint.

Almost simultaneously to Dan's gesture, I received a similar response from Maneesh saying, "As far as the winnings are concerned, I would like to donate it to Red Cross Disaster Relief if it's possible for you to do that. I just hope it makes 2014 just a little better and brighter for someone." Fortunately for Maneesh, I have the Red Cross on speed dial ever since their successful efforts at relieving the disaster that was the first half of our NFL season at The Spread Zone.

In all seriousness Dan and Maneesh, your kindness and generosity are unexpected and inspiring. I will pay forward your winnings and let you know where they went when I do. 

And now for something completely different...

After the Saints, Eagles, Cheifs, Colts, Niners, and Packers put the Wild in Wild Card and the Bengals put the Weak in Weekend, NFL fans and gamblers alike are licking their lips in anticipation of another four-pack of hard-fought, back-and-forth, come-from-behind, underdog-covering games. Unfortunately, the world doesn't always work out that way. And by "the world" I mean the degenerate culture of sports betting, and by "doesn't always work out that way" I mean hardly ever and in fact the opposite is a more likely outcome. 

Unfortunately for the average bettor, however, a strange and mysterious form of amnesia sets in over the Wild Card weekend. They marvel as they witness the Indianapolis Colts erase a 28 point deficit in the second half. They oooh and ahhh as the Saints and Eagles swap leads until New Orleans finally breaks the legendary Road Curse that has haunted their organization since they shared a division with the Niners. This week they're like, "What? The Patriots and the Seahawks are still in the playoffs? How did that happen?" and without an answer satisfying enough not to take the touchdown plus those amazing Wild Card teams are being given this weekend, they bet the farm on the road dogs. If you don't believe me, check the numbers. 

Here is how the public is betting this weekend:

1. San Francisco (-2.5) over CAROLINA to the tune of 79%

2. San Diego (+9.5) over DENVER at a steady clip of 61%

3. Indianapolis (+7.5) over NEW ENGLAND at just under 60%

4. New Orleans (+7.5) over SEATTLE at an alarming 58%

If there is even a single ounce of you that agrees with all four public picks and thinks you'd like to roll them up into a big fat parlay, I encourage you to take a quick mini-vacation to Las Vegas where I guarantee you can find a urinal to piss in that costs more than your house. Urinals like that are not built on losing. We're not saying that anyone in the world knows what the outcomes of these games will be, we're just saying that there's no way in hell that an average of two-thirds of the betting public is going to walk away from this weekend a winner. In fact, we think the exact opposite is going to happen.

Wild Card Weekend Record: 3-1 ATS

Friday Five Record Week 14-17: 15-4-1 ATS

What It All Means: We're on a roll and we intend to keep it that way by completely fading the public and going with the following picks:

CAROLINA PANTHERS (+2.5) over San Francisco Forty Niners: Ohhh, the Forty Niners were so brave going to Green Bay and playing in sub-zero weather. Isn't it amazing that they beat the Green Bay Packers and their daunting TWENTY-SIXTH ranked defense? No, it's not. They are coasting on reputation. Colin Kaepernick has proven that he can beat up on the Green Bay Packers and the other mediocre teams in the league, but when it comes to winning on the road the Niners only won one game against a team with a +.500 record and that was the Arizona Cardinals in Week 17. 

Meanwhile, Carolina does nothing but win at home and continues to get no respect. In fact, their only home loss this season was a 12-7 defeat to the #1 seeded Seattle Seahawks. They also beat the Niners in San Francisco a few weeks ago and handed Kaepernick his worst QBR ever. Take the points and tell the public they're idiots. 

Picks: Carolina and the UNDER 42

DENVER BRONCOS (-9.5) over San Diego Chargers: Okay, the Chargers did surprise me last weekend, so I can't really poo poo their performance or blame everything on Andy Dalton and Butterfingers Bernard, but let's face it - all we've heard in the media ever since their win is how San Diego beat Denver in Denver last time, has won six out of eight times at Mile High, plays the Broncos tough all the time, etc., etc. All that may be true, and to be completely honest if it weren't for their mediocre offense and their mediocre defense, we'd be all over the Chargers, but as it is, Ryan Matthews is as banged up as the Broncos are rested, and we believe the 2013 Baltimore Ravens plagiarized story ends here. If the Broncos can jump our to a quick lead (and we think they will), they will be the ones playing keep away with the Chargers keep away game plan. Make sense of that sentence, and when you're done give up the points and take the Broncos.

Picks: Denver and the OVER 55

NEW ENGLAND (-7.5) over Indianapolis Colts: Wow - Andrew Luck is amazing. He led the Colts to the second largest playoff comeback in NFL history. Thank goodness the Colts horrendously porous defense set up that scenario for him. Great teamwork, right? Right. Granted, the New England Patriots are not the daunting, Super Bowl locks they once were, but Brady is still Brady and if Alex Smith and a Jamaal Charles-less backfield can score 44 on Indy, mark him down for about 60. Plus, Belichick is still Belichick, and I'm pretty sure he'll have a plan to limit T.Y. Hilton to less than the 6,000 receptions he had last week. This is a no brainer. Give up the points and take the Patriots.

"Yeah, I'd like you to double Hilton. Over."

Picks: New England and the OVER 52

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-7.5) over New Orleans Saints: Well, the Saints finally won a playoff road game last week. I guess that means road victories should come pretty easily from now on. I mean look at the Boston Red Sox once the Curse of the Bambino ended. They win the World Series all the time, so if the Saints can squeak by the Philadelphia Eagles and their THIRTY-SECOND RANKED rush defense, then playing against the number one overall defense in Seattle (15-1 SU/12-4 ATS at home the past two years) should be a piece of cake. I hope they like their cakes spread all over their faces and then mashed into soggy field turf by 300+ pound defensive linemen. Take Seattle - with Percy Harvin back, the legs fresh and rested, the crowd noisy as always, this will resemble that Monday Night game back in November. Matt Rudnitsky of SportsGrid.com described the first match-up like this:

"The biggest factor in that game, besides the fast start, was Russell Wilson dominating. The Saints had the 6th-ranked pass defense in DVOA this year, but Wilson torched them for 310 yards and a 94.7 QBR. If you (understandably) still don’t understand QBR, that’s like having sex 100 with 100 girls with a condom yet impregnating 94.7 of them. (I am exaggerating, but it’s 94.7 out of 100, on a difficult scale.)

       "Hee, hee. I just got you pregnant."

Enough said.

Pick: Seattle and the UNDER 46.5

Please don't be a prisoner of the moment. Use your heads, bet wisely, and may the spreads be with you all. 

Vinny and Marco